2-5 Information System for Landuse Monitoring and Crop Yield Estimation in China by Using Remote Sensing Project Scope and Relationsbip to China's Agenda 21 This project seeks to establish information systems for landuse and crop yield estimation by remote sensing. It will contribute to China's decision-making for sustainable development. This project is based on programme area A of China's Agenda 21 and related to areas 6E, 4Dand 10E. 1. Background Food production, biomass and rational landuse are a basis sustainable development. Rapid population growth, accompanied by food and resource shortages, and enviromnental degradation are threatening social and economic development. China's population is over one-fifth of the total world population but arable land per capitai is lower than in most developing countries. Moreover, urban expansion and enviromnental degradation affects the availability of arable land. Changes in land and food conditions have a significant influence on sustainable development. Monitoring of landuse and food production is necessary to provide scientific information for national macroeconomic decision-making. Remote sensing technology employed in landuse monitoring and crop yield estimation has successfully provided economic, environmental and social benefits in many developed countries, e.g. the project LACIE attd AGRISTARS conducted by Department of Agriculture of USA. Geographical diversity and the influence of a traditional agricultural economy have resulted in farmland that is a mixture of different kinds of landuse, crops and farming systems. Crop yield estimations evaluate output per unit area and the size and changes in area types. In the last ten years, some work has been done on landuse and crop yield estimation by remote sensing. During the period of the "Eighth Five Year Plan", a national project on "Yield Estimation of Main Crops in China" was completed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences with an investment of US $100 million by SPC. This has provided valuable information on yield estimation of winter wheat, rice and corn by combining remote sensing and GIS technology. At present, remote sensing activities in China lay emphasis on regional static landuse surveys. A national information system for landuse change monitoring has not been established. Crop yield estimation with remote sensing focuses on a few main crops in the principal crop production areas. Considerabel further work needs to be done to design a national crop yield estimation system and put it into practice with the capability of evaluating agriculture development potential. 2. Objectives Long-term Objectives The goal of this project is to establish a national information system for landuse monitoring and crop yield estimation by remote sensing technology and geographical information system so as to monitor landuse changes and forecast food production on a national scale. Immediate Objectives Establishment of a database to provide background data for the information system. This will enable information for the whole country on landuse and food production to be managed. A varioty of data types will be included in the data base such as geographical data, meteorological data, remote sensing data, field-measured data, social and economic data ctc. Development of a model base which will function on landuse change monitoring, crop yield estimation, natural resources and environment evaluation, disaster evaluation, land planing and decision-making. Construction of computer network and formulation of system regulation to provide efficient hardware and software, facilitate the exchange and sharing of technical resources and data with other national or local systems. Operation of the information system will enable monitoring of landuse changes and forecasting of food production. This will provide reports to relevant ministries so that appropriate measures can be taken. It will also assist in the evaluation of the capability for sustainable development in different areas of China, allowing the government to adjust planning, make policy and carry out macroeconomic controls. 3. Activities 3.1 Establishment of Ground Sampling System The sampling network is designed to supply field-measured data for calibrating remote sensing data and training models. Sampling sites will be distributed through stratified sampling technique. 3.2 Development of Computer Automatic Classification System Automatic classification system of remote sensing data will be developed. With the improvement of atmospheric rediation calibration and geometric correction of remote sensing data (NOAA data landsat TM data and etc.), combined with the background data base, automatic recognition techniques will be developed to distinguish different landuse types, crops and vegetation types. 3.3 Development of Methodology on Landuse Cbange Monitoring and Forecasting Under the support of GIS, landuse dynamic change can be monitored by over laying analysis of multi- temporal remote sensing data (Landsat TM data, MSS data and NOAA data) and thermal data. Natural factors and human impacts related to landuse change will be monitored, and changes in landuse can be forecast. 3.4 Modelling Research Serial models of crop yield estimation, landuse monitoring and decision-making will be built to forecast food production, based on which evaluation models of sustainable development capability will also be developed. These models include: Remote Sensing Models of crop ecological factor: - Near ground and crown temperature model - Soil moisture model - Draught index model - Vegetation index model Estlmation Model of crop yield Food markot forecasting Model Landuse Chaiige Trend Model Evaluation Model of Biomass Resources and Environment Model of Macroscopic Adjustment, Planning and Decision-making 3.5 Construction of the Information System for Landuse Monitoring and Crop Yield Estimation This system will be constructed mainly through the following works: Establishment of background data base: To achieve systematic management of background data. Establishment of Model base: To coordinate a variety of models. Establishment of food warning expert system. Proper measure will be proposed with the aid of an expert system which is combined with analysis of food market. This project will be organized by State Planning Commission and State Science and Technology Commission. The duration of the project will be three years. 4. Inputs This project is anticipated to cost about US $6,500,000 of which US$ 1,700,000 is expected to get from international grant and US$4,800,000 comes from state investment (State Planning Commission has invested US$l,000,000 and Chinese Academy of Sciences invested corresponding fund). Budget (in million US dollars) Items Chinese Input External Grant Total Personnel 0.60 -- 0.60 Experts 0.20 0.20 0.40 Training 0.20 0.20 0.40 Computer system 1.15 0.35 5.25 Office facilities 0.20 0.20 0.40 Demonstration 0.80 0.40 1.20 Database 1.20 0.20 1.40 Data purchasing 0.60 0.10 0.70 Miscellaneous 0.20 0.05 0.25 Total 4.80 1.70 6.50 5. Benefits Implementation of this project will result in the establishment of a national information system for landuse monitoring and crop yield estimation, wbich will contribute to sustainable development in China. Compared with traditional methods on information about landuse and crop yields, it will be more efficient and will reduce the consumption of man power, money and materials. These direct beniefits are estimated at about US$ 100 million. The indirect social and economic benefits will be greater certainty in the scientific basis for state agricultural decision-making. 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