9-3 China Country Study to Address Global Climate Chance Project Scope and Relationsbip to China's Agenda 21 The specific objectives addressed in this project are, through participation in international cooperation and the support of Chinese government, to develop the methodology for compiling GHGs emission inventory, to assess the impacts of climate change and adaptive response policies and measures, to evaluate the technological options to mitigate GHGs emissions and the techno-economical analysis, and to carry out socio-economic analysis on alternative scenarios of future GHGs emissions in China. This project is based on programme area 18C of China's Agenda 21 and related to areas 12C, 13A, 13B, 13D and 18D. 1 . Background China is a developing country with a government that has paid great attention to key global environmental issues. The National Climate Change Coordinative Leading Group was founded in 1990 to be in charge of the organization of national studies to address climate change. The Chinese government signed the United Nations' "Framework Convention on Climate Change" on June 11, 1992, and deposited officially the instruments of ratification of the convention to the General Secretary of the United Nations in January, 1993. Multi-disciplinary research work sponsored by the Chinese government on global climate change has been carried out since 1990 by domestic experts. National key science and technology projects in this area are also being conducted in China during the Eighth-Five-Year Plan. At the same time, China has already received some foreign funding for the following international cooperation projects: ADB- China Technical Assistance Project on National Response Strategies for Global Climate Change: P.R.China; World Bank-China cooperation project on Global Climate Change; Sino-Canadian cooperation project on estimation of GHGs emissions. There has also been cooperative studies with the US EPA and DOE in this area concerning, for instance, emissions of CH4 from rice fields, CO2from forests and CH4 from coal mines. Work on the evaluation of sources and sinks of major GHGs is currently underway in China with a lot of information and written material already accumulated. In order to know the status and impacts of global climate change, an atmospheric circulation model and a sea-air linkage model have been developed in China, and also the development of a regional climate change model is under way. National and regional impact assessment models for sea level change plus agricultural, forestry and water resource ecological systems are emphasized on vulnerability assessment in order to be consistent with the working plan of the Second Working Group of the Chinese IPCC. The main GHGs emissions are caused by activities related to energy. Since coal has a predominant The main GHGs emissions are caused by activities related to energy. Since coal has a predominant share of China's primary energy strocture, it is of crucial importance for reducing GHGs emissions to shift energy composition in terms of developing alternative non-carbon energies and/or ones that emit less carbon and clean utilization of coal. Therefore studies and assessment of technological measures for reducing GHGs emissions in China, and suggestions as to proper response policies for their development have been carried out. The research results derived from the projects carried out in the past few years can provide a preliminary basis for this intended research project. Thus,a preliminary research base has been founded in China in the fields of global climate change scenarios for GHGs emission reduction, and socio-economic analysis of response policies. Some models have been developed by several domestic institutes on the analysis and assessment of the interaction between reducing GHGs emissions and macro-economic factors. 2. Objectives Identify and prepare an inventory of key sources and sinks of major greenhouse gases in China Assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate cbange, and identify adaptive responses Evaluate and carry out a techno-economic analysis of the technological options for mitigating GHGs emissions Analyze the social and economic implications for Cbina's future GHGs emission scenarios and response policies 3. Activities 3.1 Identification and inventory of key sources and sinks of major greenhouse gases Identification of the key sources and sinks of GHGs in China and the specification of their activity level and characteristics through surveys, data collection and analysis. Estimation of the emission factors of key emission sources, and determination of their appropriate application range and condition. Presentation of approaches appropriate to China dealing with the inventory of sources and sinks of GHGs based on an evaluation of OECD/IPCC approacbes Compilation of a preliminary inventory of key sources and sinks of GHGs. 3.2 Assessment of vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change, and identification of adaptive responses Assessment of potential climate change in Cbina caused by increased GHGs emissions, and the specification of future climate change scenarios for China, by using simulation results from the Global Climate Model recommended by IPCC, and also from models developed in China. Improvement of methods and approaches for vulnerability assessment to the impacts of climate change related to key economic sectors and/or ecological systems. Using the climate cbange scenarios, assess the impacts on areas of potential vulnerability, for instance sea level change, agriculture, water resources, forestry and other ecological systems that are particular sensitive to climate change. Identification of alternative technological options for adapting to climate change. Evaluation and proposal of policy instruments to improve the implementation of adaptive response policies. 3.3 Evaluation and techno-economic analysis of the technologicai options for mitigating GHGs emissions Investigating and analysing the current technology status and energy conservation potential of the general equipment in use in major energy-intensive industries in China, and comparison with advanced technologies available worldwide. Creating an indicator system and assessment approaches to facilitate the comprehensive evaluation of technologies for reducing GHGs emissions. Identifying and selecting technologies for reducing GHGs emissions suitable to China's specific needs, and offering suggestions and policies for their diffusion and application in the near and medium term by means of techno-economic analysis and environmental benefit assessment. Developing an inventory data-base of characteristics of advanced technologies for reducing GHGs emissions in Cbina, whose indicator system will correspond with that recommended by the IPCC. Analysing the technological measures for reducing CH4 emissions in non-industrial processes and assessing their economic, social and environmental benefits. 3.4 Social and economic analysis for China's future GHGs emission scenarios and response policies Based on wide ranging consultation with relevant government departments, research work is expected to generate future GHGs emission scenarios through reasonable forecasts of Chinese social, economic, population and technological development with consideration of the uncertainties caused by the Iimitations of existing knowledge, especially that concerning socio- economic development and technological progress. It will also attempt to reflect the consequences of policy assumptions as far as is possible and a set of scenarios which will cover certain variation ranges will be generated with the help of currently available scenario generation models. Macro-economic analysis on the effects of future comprehensive technological measures and policies for reducing GHGs emissions in China with existing models. Also cost-benefit analysis of various measures and policies for reducing GHGs emissions will be made from a perspective that covers all social and environmental aspects. A model dealing with the interaction between GHGs emission reduction and macro-economic factors will be established and used to simulate various policy scenarios and also to assess China's long-term social and economic development strategies. Response policies and certain suggestions on GHGs emission reductions in China will be proposed based on the macro-economic impact analysis, mentioned above. It is intended that comprehensive cooperation and academic exchange concerning the research content mentioned above should be conducted with relevant research institutes in the US, for example BNL, ANL, LBL and MIT. The implementing agencies will be the State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC), the State Planning Commission (SPC), the National Meteorological Bureau, the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), the National Oceanographic Bureau (NOB), the Ministry of Electric Power Industry, and the Academia Sinica. The duration of this project will be 3 years. 4. Inputs 4.1 Chinese Inputs This project also belong to the eighth-five-year plan's key projects. The Chinese government will provide suitable housing and living facilities, basic office in support of operation and administration of the project. 4.2 International Cooperation It is expected that the study results under the US Country Study initiative oould be adopted as an importani part of the nationai country siiidy to address climate change Appropriate cooperation with US agencies, such as NEPA and DOE and their affiliated research iiistitiitio!is, will be recommended according to the particular needs of individual stiidies. . 4. 3 Budget Budget (in million US dollars) Items Chinese Input External Inputs Total Personnal 0.42 1.00 1.42 Travel and Training 0.30 0.62 0.92 Equipment 0.40 0.51 0.91 Other 0.18 0.57 0.75 Total 1.30 2.70 4.00 5. Benefits The project will benefit national response strategy for global climate change. This work will enhance the monitoring of GHGs emissions, evaluate impacts of globai climate change, while providing a techno-economic and environmental assessment of technologies of GHGs reduction and a model of socio-economic anaiysis will be gained. The research outputs can be used to direct future industrial development. Text Browser Utilities: [Back, ACCA21 Home] For more information about ACCA21 contact: web@acca21.edu.cn Address: 109 Wanquanhe Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100089, People's Republic of China Telephone: +86-10-82636193, +86-10-82634400 Ext.2401 Fax: +86-10-82636192