1 - 3 INDICATORS OF CHINA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AND RELATED EVALUATION METHODS

 

1. Project Summary and Relationship to China's Agenda 21

This project aims at setting up the indictors which reflect and measure China's general situation in regard to sustainable development in terms of economy, society, resources and environment of the country, so that the government and the public have a clear understanding of the situation. It is also expected that this project will serve as a basis for the development of comprehensive regulatory mechanisms that will strengthen the pace and effectiveness of China's movement toward sustainable development.

This project is based on programme areas 4D, 6A, 6D and 6F of China's Agenda 21, and is related to programme areas 2A, 4B, 4C, 11B, 12A and 16A.

2. Background

China is now in a period of rapid economic development. Along with the tremendous success in economic development since the implementation of the policy of reform and openness, China is experiencing great pressure from a growing population, deteriorating environment and depleting resources. To counter such pressures, the government has worked out national strategies for China's sustainable development.

In order to indicate and evaluate the general pattern of China's sustainable development, it is necessary to set up a system of indicators and related evaluation methods to measure how far the goals of sustainable development have been realised, and to gradually incorporate the system into the account and statistical systems of the national economy. This is a fundamental step towards sustainable social and economic development that is in accord with the national situation. The establishment of the system of indicators is an important benchmark in the transformation of the present mode of economic growth and in assuring that the principles and action plans defined and proposed by China's Agenda 21 are realised operationally.

Traditionally, SNA (System of National Accounts) is employed as the basic means to measure economic development; GNP and other economic indexes are major indicators to measure economic activities and to represent the extent to which development goals are realised. With the expanding socio-economic development, it has become evident that the use of GNP as an indicator of the degree of development of a country has its drawback. Since the early 1980's, China's accounting system has been moving toward the international accounting system. The present statistics used to indicate economic growth and social development in China consist of 19 indicators with major concentration on economic growth. Although there are some indicators of environment and material consumption, they are only passive reflections of environmental conditions and material consumption and cannot be used to actively examine the degree of coordinated development among population, resources, environment and economy. Therefore, to improve, substantiate and streamline the existing indicators to measure the development comprehensively and scientifically has become an important step in implementing a sustainable development strategy.

World-wide, much research has been applied to sustainable development indictors. In 1990, UNDP initiated the comprehensive human development index (HDI) based on the three basic variables: life expectancy, educational level and real GDP. The World Bank publicised the updated advanced indexes of sustainable development in 1995, which take the continuity of increase in social wealth per capita as a principal indicator of the level and potential for a country's sustainable development. Canada, the US, the Netherlands and other countries have also put forward indictors for measuring sustainable development.

China's sustainable development strategy has moved from the formulation stage to the implementation stage and China's Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the national economic and social development plans, thus providing a good opportunity for research and formulation of a sustainable development indicator system. In recent years, scholars from the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Social Academy of Science, the State Statistical Bureau and some universities have made great efforts in the collection and evaluation of information concerning international research results of the indicator system. Chinese scientists have achieved a large volume of results in indicator systems for evaluation of the natural environment. The State Statistical Bureau has organised experts to study the indictors for the comprehensive appraisal of China's socio-economic development. All these works have laid a sound foundation for this project.

 

3. Objectives

3.1 Long-term Objective

To set up an effective and applicable indictor system and related evaluation methods for China's sustainable development, which will be integrated into the national accounting system and gradually geared to international standards after they have been subjected to regional experimentation and necessary training.

3.2 Immediate Objectives

  • To develop the indicator system on the basis of evaluating the major influence factors on China's sustainable development through analysis and comparison of current international and domestic statistical methods and existing sustainable development indicator systems;
  • To test the applicability of the indicator system at selected regions and evaluate the utility of the whole system;
  • To work out the approaches, steps and policies concerning the gradual incorporation of the indictor system into the national accounting system.

4. Outputs and Activities

4.1 Survey and evaluation of current studies on sustainable development indicators both in China and around the world

  • To compose a list of domestic and foreign experts in different fields concerning research on the indicators of sustainable development, and to form a project group and expert network consisting of government departments, scientific research institutions and other organisations;
  • To evaluate the progress of international research on the indicators of sustainable development, promote international co-operation and exchange, monitor the international research frontiers of sustainable development, and gearing the corresponding research in China to international research;
  • To analyse and evaluate the implementation and operation of the existing statistical indexes from the sustainable development point of view.

Monitoring Indicators: an established pool of 150 experts, consultative conference and symposium of experts; two prepared evaluation reports on international and domestic research; and progress in implementation of indictors of sustainable development.

Implementing Agencies: the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21, National Statistical Bureau, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Time Schedule: June 1996 - December 1997

4.2 To form the framework and technological approach to the indicator system for China's sustainable development

  • To fix the major parameters for monitoring and regulating the process of China's sustainable development on the basis of evaluation of the main factors influencing China's sustainable development;
  • To present the draft of the technological approach and indicator framework;
  • To organise an international symposium on sustainable development for demonstration and revision of the feasibility and rationality of the draft, and to widely solicit comments for revision from government departments, research institutions and non-governmental organisations.

Monitoring Indicators: 3000 questionnaire tables, a report on the technological approach and framework for the indictors of China's sustainable development.

Implementing Agencies: State Education Commission, the Administrative Center for China Agenda 21, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Time Schedule: January 1997 - December 1997

4.3 To advance the indicator system and calculation method.

According to the general framework of the indicators and taking into consideration the major problems concerning China's sustainable development and the adaptability of existing statistical indexes, determine the principles for the evaluation and selection of indicators, and propose the indicators and indicator system of China's sustainable development;

  • To study the statistical and calculation methods of different kinds of indexes included in the system;
  • To make a comparison with, and analysis of, the existing statistical indexes and the monitoring indexes of important government departments, to study the feasibility and operability for the application of the indexes and calculation methods and to revise accordingly;
  • To invite experts to discuss and evaluate the feasibility and rationality of the indicators and the related evaluation method, and seek their suggestions for the choice of indexes, the selection of model parameters and the formation of the model structure.

Monitoring Indicators: indicators system and its components, 5000 questionnaires from experts relating to indicators and calculation methods, development of calculation methodology.

Implementing Agencies: Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Statistic Bureau, State Education Commission.

Time schedule: January 1997 - December 1997

4.4 To evaluate the feasibility of regional experimentation of the indicators of sustainable development

  • To select the number and location of experimental regions, and to determine the overall scale of the experiment;
  • To sponsor and organise symposiums and training courses at national, provincial and local levels, providing training for the application of the proposed indictors and related calculation method;
  • To conduct a two year experiment in the selected experimental regions, to verify the utility, validity and operability of the proposed indictors of sustainable development;
  • To improve the indicators according to the results of the experiment, and to standardise the operational procedures;
  • To widely solicit criticism and suggestions among government departments, business organisations and the public, and to appraise the validity of the research results.

Monitoring Indicators: 8 training seminars, 30000 copies of information on indicator materials to be distributed, 5 reports on regional experimentation, a general evaluation report.

Implementing Agencies: Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Statistic Bureau, the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21.

Time schedule: January 1998 - December 1999

4.5 Approaches, steps and policies to gradually incorporate the system into the national statistics system

  • To modify and standardise the operational procedure of data collection and evaluation of the indicators of sustainable development, and to make formal suggestions to the national government to incorporate the system into the national statistics system;
  • To formulate related policies concerning data collection, presentation of reports to higher levels and for annual evaluation;
  • To evaluate China's capability to effectuate sustainable development by applying the indicator system, and to appraise the sustainable development situation at the provincial level in China.

Monitoring Indicators: proposed standard and detailed operation guidelines for the indicators, and related policies and regulations.

Implementing Agencies: State Statistic Bureau, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21.

Time schedule: May 1998 - December 2000

5. Inputs

5.1 Chinese Inputs

Chinese inputs will be for experts' survey, training, pilot experiment, dissemination of information, facilities, management, etc.

5.2 International Inputs

International inputs will be for foreign experts, international exchange, training, survey, facility imports and grants.

5.3 Budget

Total budget amounts to US$ 3 million, of which half is to be provided by China, and the other half from international agencies.

 

Table 1. Budget by Item (in million US dollars)

Item

Total

Chinese Inputs International Inputs

Subtotal

Grant

Loan

Local
Contribution

Subtotal

Grant

Loan

Direct

Investment

Experts

0.95

0.35

0.30

 

0.05

0.60

0.60

   

Survey

0.30

0.10

0.10

   

0.20

0.20

   

Information

0.60

0.45

0.45

   

0.15

0.15

   

Training

0.30

0.20

0.20

   

0.10

0.10

   

Facilities

0.40

0.20

0.10

 

0.10

0.20

0.20

   

Management

0.24

0.14

0.14

   

0.10

0.10

   

Contingency

0.21

0.06

0.06

   

0.15

0.15

   

Total

3.00

1.50

1.35

 

0.15

1.50

1.50

   

 

 

Table 2. Budget by Output (in million US dollars)

Output Total Chinese Inputs International Inputs
Subtotal Grant Loan Local
Contribution
Subtotal Grant Loan Direct
Investment
4.1 0.50 0.20 0.20     0.30 0.30    
4.2 0.43 0.23 0.23     0.20 0.20    
4.3 0.51 0.31 0.31     0.20 0.20    
4.4 0.79 0.39 0.34   0.05 0.40 0.40    
4.5 0.77 0.37 0.27   0.10 0.40 0.40    
Total 3.00 1.50 1.35   0.15 1.50 1.50    

 

6. Benefits

Upon the completion of this project, a complete set of indictors will be in place which are suitable for measuring the status and dynamics of sustainable development in China. This kind of evaluation will profoundly influence policy-making of governments at the national and local levels. It will also promote co-operation in this field between international organisations and Chinese government agencies, research institutes and other organisations concerned with sustainable development and provide a frame of reference for other countries. Furthermore, it will contribute to the enhancement of public awareness of sustainable development in China, bringing about changes in the values and behaviours related to developmental issues.

7. Risks

At present, there is inadequate public awareness of sustainable development in China. To ensure long-term monitoring of sustainable development indicators and their conscientious use by policy-makers at all levels, it is necessary to arouse public awareness of these issues by strengthening training, through dissemination of publicity and by encouraging participation in the project by policy-makers at all levels and by the public.


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