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INDICATORS OF CHINA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AND RELATED EVALUATION METHODS
1. Project Summary and Relationship to China's Agenda
21
This project aims at setting up the indictors which
reflect and measure China's general situation in regard to
sustainable development in terms of economy, society,
resources and environment of the country, so that the
government and the public have a clear understanding of the
situation. It is also expected that this project will serve
as a basis for the development of comprehensive regulatory
mechanisms that will strengthen the pace and effectiveness of
China's movement toward sustainable development.
This project is based on programme areas 4D, 6A, 6D and 6F
of China's Agenda 21, and is related to programme areas 2A,
4B, 4C, 11B, 12A and 16A.
2. Background
China is now in a period of rapid economic development.
Along with the tremendous success in economic development
since the implementation of the policy of reform and
openness, China is experiencing great pressure from a growing
population, deteriorating environment and depleting
resources. To counter such pressures, the government has
worked out national strategies for China's sustainable
development.
In order to indicate and evaluate the general pattern of
China's sustainable development, it is necessary to set up a
system of indicators and related evaluation methods to
measure how far the goals of sustainable development have
been realised, and to gradually incorporate the system into
the account and statistical systems of the national economy.
This is a fundamental step towards sustainable social and
economic development that is in accord with the national
situation. The establishment of the system of indicators is
an important benchmark in the transformation of the present
mode of economic growth and in assuring that the principles
and action plans defined and proposed by China's Agenda 21
are realised operationally.
Traditionally, SNA (System of National Accounts) is
employed as the basic means to measure economic development;
GNP and other economic indexes are major indicators to
measure economic activities and to represent the extent to
which development goals are realised. With the expanding
socio-economic development, it has become evident that the
use of GNP as an indicator of the degree of development of a
country has its drawback. Since the early 1980's, China's
accounting system has been moving toward the international
accounting system. The present statistics used to indicate
economic growth and social development in China consist of 19
indicators with major concentration on economic growth.
Although there are some indicators of environment and
material consumption, they are only passive reflections of
environmental conditions and material consumption and cannot
be used to actively examine the degree of coordinated
development among population, resources, environment and
economy. Therefore, to improve, substantiate and streamline
the existing indicators to measure the development
comprehensively and scientifically has become an important
step in implementing a sustainable development strategy.
World-wide, much research has been applied to sustainable
development indictors. In 1990, UNDP initiated the
comprehensive human development index (HDI) based on the
three basic variables: life expectancy, educational level and
real GDP. The World Bank publicised the updated advanced
indexes of sustainable development in 1995, which take the
continuity of increase in social wealth per capita as a
principal indicator of the level and potential for a
country's sustainable development. Canada, the US, the
Netherlands and other countries have also put forward
indictors for measuring sustainable development.
China's sustainable development strategy has moved from
the formulation stage to the implementation stage and China's
Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the national economic
and social development plans, thus providing a good
opportunity for research and formulation of a sustainable
development indicator system. In recent years, scholars from
the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Chinese Social Academy of Science, the
State Statistical Bureau and some universities have made
great efforts in the collection and evaluation of information
concerning international research results of the indicator
system. Chinese scientists have achieved a large volume of
results in indicator systems for evaluation of the natural
environment. The State Statistical Bureau has organised
experts to study the indictors for the comprehensive
appraisal of China's socio-economic development. All these
works have laid a sound foundation for this project.
3. Objectives
3.1 Long-term Objective
To set up an effective and applicable indictor system and
related evaluation methods for China's sustainable
development, which will be integrated into the national
accounting system and gradually geared to international
standards after they have been subjected to regional
experimentation and necessary training.
3.2 Immediate Objectives
- To develop the indicator system on the basis of
evaluating the major influence factors on China's
sustainable development through analysis and comparison
of current international and domestic statistical methods
and existing sustainable development indicator systems;
- To test the applicability of the indicator system at
selected regions and evaluate the utility of the whole
system;
- To work out the approaches, steps and policies concerning
the gradual incorporation of the indictor system into the
national accounting system.
4. Outputs and Activities
4.1 Survey and evaluation of current studies on
sustainable development indicators both in China and around
the world
- To compose a list of domestic and foreign experts in
different fields concerning research on the indicators of
sustainable development, and to form a project group and
expert network consisting of government departments,
scientific research institutions and other organisations;
- To evaluate the progress of international research on the
indicators of sustainable development, promote
international co-operation and exchange, monitor the
international research frontiers of sustainable
development, and gearing the corresponding research in
China to international research;
- To analyse and evaluate the implementation and operation
of the existing statistical indexes from the sustainable
development point of view.
Monitoring Indicators: an established pool of 150 experts,
consultative conference and symposium of experts; two
prepared evaluation reports on international and domestic
research; and progress in implementation of indictors of
sustainable development.
Implementing Agencies: the Administrative Centre for
China's Agenda 21, National Statistical Bureau, Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Time Schedule: June 1996 - December 1997
4.2 To form the framework and technological approach to
the indicator system for China's sustainable development
- To fix the major parameters for monitoring and regulating
the process of China's sustainable development on the
basis of evaluation of the main factors influencing
China's sustainable development;
- To present the draft of the technological approach and
indicator framework;
- To organise an international symposium on sustainable
development for demonstration and revision of the
feasibility and rationality of the draft, and to widely
solicit comments for revision from government
departments, research institutions and non-governmental
organisations.
Monitoring Indicators: 3000 questionnaire tables, a report
on the technological approach and framework for the indictors
of China's sustainable development.
Implementing Agencies: State Education Commission, the
Administrative Center for China Agenda 21, Chinese Academy of
Sciences.
Time Schedule: January 1997 - December 1997
4.3 To advance the indicator system and calculation
method.
According to the general framework of the indicators and
taking into consideration the major problems concerning
China's sustainable development and the adaptability of
existing statistical indexes, determine the principles for
the evaluation and selection of indicators, and propose the
indicators and indicator system of China's sustainable
development;
- To study the statistical and calculation methods of
different kinds of indexes included in the system;
- To make a comparison with, and analysis of, the existing
statistical indexes and the monitoring indexes of
important government departments, to study the
feasibility and operability for the application of the
indexes and calculation methods and to revise
accordingly;
- To invite experts to discuss and evaluate the feasibility
and rationality of the indicators and the related
evaluation method, and seek their suggestions for the
choice of indexes, the selection of model parameters and
the formation of the model structure.
Monitoring Indicators: indicators system and its
components, 5000 questionnaires from experts relating to
indicators and calculation methods, development of
calculation methodology.
Implementing Agencies: Chinese Academy of Sciences, State
Statistic Bureau, State Education Commission.
Time schedule: January 1997 - December 1997
4.4 To evaluate the feasibility of regional
experimentation of the indicators of sustainable development
- To select the number and location of experimental
regions, and to determine the overall scale of the
experiment;
- To sponsor and organise symposiums and training courses
at national, provincial and local levels, providing
training for the application of the proposed indictors
and related calculation method;
- To conduct a two year experiment in the selected
experimental regions, to verify the utility, validity and
operability of the proposed indictors of sustainable
development;
- To improve the indicators according to the results of the
experiment, and to standardise the operational
procedures;
- To widely solicit criticism and suggestions among
government departments, business organisations and the
public, and to appraise the validity of the research
results.
Monitoring Indicators: 8 training seminars, 30000 copies
of information on indicator materials to be distributed, 5
reports on regional experimentation, a general evaluation
report.
Implementing Agencies: Chinese Academy of Sciences, State
Statistic Bureau, the Administrative Centre for China's
Agenda 21.
Time schedule: January 1998 - December 1999
4.5 Approaches, steps and policies to gradually
incorporate the system into the national statistics system
- To modify and standardise the operational procedure of
data collection and evaluation of the indicators of
sustainable development, and to make formal suggestions
to the national government to incorporate the system into
the national statistics system;
- To formulate related policies concerning data collection,
presentation of reports to higher levels and for annual
evaluation;
- To evaluate China's capability to effectuate sustainable
development by applying the indicator system, and to
appraise the sustainable development situation at the
provincial level in China.
Monitoring Indicators: proposed standard and detailed
operation guidelines for the indicators, and related policies
and regulations.
Implementing Agencies: State Statistic Bureau, Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, the Administrative Center for
China's Agenda 21.
Time schedule: May 1998 - December 2000
5. Inputs
5.1 Chinese Inputs
Chinese inputs will be for experts' survey, training,
pilot experiment, dissemination of information, facilities,
management, etc.
5.2 International Inputs
International inputs will be for foreign experts,
international exchange, training, survey, facility imports
and grants.
5.3 Budget
Total budget amounts to US$ 3 million, of which half is to
be provided by China, and the other half from international
agencies.
Table 1. Budget by Item (in million US
dollars)
Item
|
Total
|
Chinese Inputs |
International Inputs |
Subtotal
|
Grant
|
Loan
|
Local
Contribution
|
Subtotal
|
Grant
|
Loan
|
Direct Investment
|
Experts
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
0.30
|
|
0.05
|
0.60
|
0.60
|
|
|
Survey
|
0.30
|
0.10
|
0.10
|
|
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
|
|
Information
|
0.60
|
0.45
|
0.45
|
|
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
|
|
Training
|
0.30
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
|
|
0.10
|
0.10
|
|
|
Facilities
|
0.40
|
0.20
|
0.10
|
|
0.10
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
|
|
Management
|
0.24
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
|
|
0.10
|
0.10
|
|
|
Contingency
|
0.21
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
|
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
|
|
Total
|
3.00
|
1.50
|
1.35
|
|
0.15
|
1.50
|
1.50
|
|
|
Table 2. Budget by Output (in million
US dollars)
| Output |
Total |
Chinese Inputs |
International Inputs |
| Subtotal |
Grant |
Loan |
Local
Contribution |
Subtotal |
Grant |
Loan |
Direct
Investment |
| 4.1 |
0.50 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
|
|
0.30 |
0.30 |
|
|
| 4.2 |
0.43 |
0.23 |
0.23 |
|
|
0.20 |
0.20 |
|
|
| 4.3 |
0.51 |
0.31 |
0.31 |
|
|
0.20 |
0.20 |
|
|
| 4.4 |
0.79 |
0.39 |
0.34 |
|
0.05 |
0.40 |
0.40 |
|
|
| 4.5 |
0.77 |
0.37 |
0.27 |
|
0.10 |
0.40 |
0.40 |
|
|
| Total |
3.00 |
1.50 |
1.35 |
|
0.15 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
|
6. Benefits
Upon the completion of this project, a complete set of
indictors will be in place which are suitable for measuring
the status and dynamics of sustainable development in China.
This kind of evaluation will profoundly influence
policy-making of governments at the national and local
levels. It will also promote co-operation in this field
between international organisations and Chinese government
agencies, research institutes and other organisations
concerned with sustainable development and provide a frame of
reference for other countries. Furthermore, it will
contribute to the enhancement of public awareness of
sustainable development in China, bringing about changes in
the values and behaviours related to developmental issues.
7. Risks
At present, there is inadequate public awareness of
sustainable development in China. To ensure long-term
monitoring of sustainable development indicators and their
conscientious use by policy-makers at all levels, it is
necessary to arouse public awareness of these issues by
strengthening training, through dissemination of publicity
and by encouraging participation in the project by
policy-makers at all levels and by the public.
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